Lebanon On the Brink (I of II)

Lebanon is rife with rumors and people are convinced that all the recent developments are linked together.

(BEIRUT) - Lebanon is always on the verge of civil war, but this status does not always mean that civil war is necessarily around the corner.

It may happen tomorrow, or Lebanese may find a way to postpone its eruption, but civil war is inevitable. Something is in the air in Lebanon and it reminds people of my generation of the atmosphere that preceded the civil war of 1975. But there are some differences.

The Phalanges Party and the various pro-Israeli militias have been defeated. The Palestinian armed presence is not a powerful factor in Lebanese politics. There is no major party in Lebanon which is eager to instigate a civil war as the Phalanges were at the behest of Israel and the CIA back in 1975. Finally, there is no military balance of forces in the country (Hezbollah can easily prevail in any internal conflict).

But there are also similarities. There is a multiplicity of external powers intervening in Lebanon today. Socio-economic injustices are very acute. Regional developments are weighing heavily over Lebanon. The split in the ruling class is very pronounced. And sectarian tensions are worse than they were in 1975.

Lebanon is rife with rumors and people are convinced that all the recent developments are linked together.

After all, there are some worrisome signs. Some GCC countries warned their citizens against travel to Lebanon. The Saudi King sent a letter to the Lebanese president (and the text was leaked in an unprecedented manner by the Saudi news agency) expressing concern about the plight of a “major sect” in Lebanon. The arrest of Shadi al-Mawlawi and the clashes in Tripoli that followed. The shooting of an armed Sunni extremist cleric in Akkar at an army checkpoint. The bloody crackdown by Hariri militia in Tariq al-Jadidah against a small Sunni party aligned with March 8. The kidnapping by the Free Syrian Army of a group of Lebanese Shia pilgrims. The bombing of a bus carrying Lebanese Shia pilgrims in Baghdad. The bizarre clash in Ras Beirut Wednesday night. Not to mention the various skirmishes on college campuses. Are these development all linked together or are they mere coincidences?

There could be an Israeli plot being implemented by Israeli clients in Lebanon (just like 1975) against Israel’s major foes. In 1975 it was the PLO and today it’s Hezbollah. It seems that there is a plot to drag Hezbollah into civil conflict to discredit the movement of the resistance and to sap the military energy of the party; just as the PLO was dragged into the civil war.

It is rarely mentioned in books on the Lebanese civil war that the PLO under Arafat did not want to take part in the Lebanese civil war. There were “Rejectionist” Palestinian organizations, like the PFLP, which regarded (rightly) the conflict in Lebanon as part of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Arafat wanted to avoid that at all cost as were the orders from his Gulf patrons who were aligned with the rightist militias (and Arafat wanted to preserve his valuable Lebanon base).

Hezbollah is aware of the plot. The Hariri camp deliberately provoked Hezbollah on 5 May 2008, which made the May 7 events inevitable. Furthermore, it is foolish to think that Hezbollah and its mass base are not susceptible to sectarian mobilization and agitation. While the party for political reasons avoids the blatant sectarian hateful language and rhetoric of March 14 and the Saudi media, it is a party with a sectarian base and ideology.

The kidnapping of the Lebanese Shia pilgrims near Aleppo was a clear attempt at dragging the party into the conflict in Syria. The Free Syrian Army and its sister Syrian National Council have peddled for months various scenarios about the involvement of Iranian, Iraqi, and Hezbollah troops in Syria. As if the killing machine of the Syrian regime needs any help.

The plot has the fingerprints of Israel and Saudi Arabia all over it. Hezbollah did not go for the bait. Nasrallah quickly made a statement calling on the popular base of Amal and Hezbollah to stay calm and to exercise restraint. Although, the unruly Amal thugs can’t be disciplined and they attacked poor Syrian workers.

The plan was to unleash Hezbollah on Syria. It was too obvious and the New York Times even carried a claim that the Shia pilgrims (which include elderly people and Amal families) were “Hezbollah armed thugs.”

The Hariri camp may not be deliberately provoking a civil war as their enemies assume, but their leadership is so inept and so incompetent that carelessness may be taking it in that direction.